The odds definitely don't favor the Bucks

posted by Drew Olson -

It's no secret that the Bucks are in a big hole. 

They'll be facing elimination in Game 6 of their best-of-seven opening round series with Toronto Thursday night at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. 

Here, thanks to the awesome site WhoWins.com, is a breakdown of what has happened in pro sports to teams in the Bucks/Raptors' current position:

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 606-157 (.794)series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 169-44 (.793)series record, NBA only, all rounds: 244-45 (.844)series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 50-9 (.847)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 418-345 (.548)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 125-88 (.587)Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 163-126 (.564)Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 37-22 (.627)These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ HHVVH:Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVH (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 311-58 (.843)series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 100-21 (.826)series record, NBA only, all rounds: 140-13 (.915)series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 30-2 (.938)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 193-176 (.523)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 69-52 (.570)Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 81-72 (.529)Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 20-12 (.625)These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWLWW:Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LWLWW irrespective of site order (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 57-17 (.770)series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 17-4 (.810)series record, NBA only, all rounds: 21-5 (.808)series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 35-39 (.473)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 10-11 (.476)Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 14-12 (.538)Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWLWW @ HHVVH:Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading LWLWW with site order HHVVH (Toronto) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2016 MLB Finals:series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-4 (.889)series record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 11-1 (.917)series record, NBA only, all rounds: 13-2 (.867)series record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 17-19 (.472)Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Preliminary round: 7-5 (.583)Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 7-8 (.467)Game 6 record, NBA only, Preliminary round: 3-1 (.750)These records are drawn from the applicable 1319 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2016 MLB Finals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:After Game 5: The Toronto Raptors hosted and defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 118-pts-93 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1337 lead of 3-games-2. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 2-1 and a Game 6 record of 0-3. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-2, the Milwaukee Bucks have a series record of 1-10 with an active three-series losing streak and a Game 6 record of 4-7. The sole Milwaukee Bucks best-of-7 NBA playoff series victory in the wake of a 3-games-2 deficit occurred in series 839, in which they won Game 6 on the road and Game 7 at home to win their 2001 NBA Quarterfinals series against the original Charlotte Hornets.


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